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Here are the details for the proposed District 3 Power Rating. If approved by the District 3 Committee at its May 5 meeting in Hershey, the power rating will be used as the qualifying procedure for all team sports beginning with fall sports in the upcoming school year (2010-2011).

UPDATE: Just a note for volleyball. According to District 3 chairman Sam Elis, the power rating system will be used for volleyball district qualifying. But only dual matches will count toward the power rating. Tournament matches, which are not five games, will not be applied toward the power rating.

Below are pdf scans of the proposal, the math and a sample of how the math works.

Read or print these files in the order listed here:
D3 POWER RATING PROPOSAL
D3 POWER RATING MATH
D3 POWER RATING SAMPLE

There are two features of the new system that are very big changes from what District 3 has used in the past for football and basketball.

(1) Previously, all losses counted as zeroes in the calculations of previous power ratings. That will no longer be the case; losses will be weighted based on the classification of the opponent (see the D3 POWER RATING MATH file).

(2) In addition, an opponent’s weighted winning percentage will be folded into the power rating. Previously in football, a school received 10 additional bonus points for each win by a defeated opponent and zero points if it lost to an opponent. The new system will use the opponent’s weighted winning percentage for all opponents, regardless of the outcome of the contest. (See the OWP in the D3 POWER RATING SAMPLE file.)

Those are very important changes that will make the rating system much more of a true power rating system.

There is definitely more math involved in the new system. Let’s follow the sample to come up with a representative football rating.

The TWP (Team Weighted Winning Percentage) is determined by a team’s wins and losses based on the opponents’ classifications. In the sample, this Class A team defeated 1 Class AAAA team (worth 1.3 points), three Class AAA teams (worth 3.3 points), and one AA team (worth 0.9 points) for a Weighted Win total (WW) of 5.5 points.

The losses came to one AAAA team (0.7), AAA team (0.9), one Class AA team (1.1), one A team (1.3) and one non-PIAA team (1.0, note below). That’s a Weighted Loss (WL) total of 5.0.

Add the weighted win and loss totals together (5.5 plus 5.0) for a weighted total of 10.5. The final Team Weighted Winning Percentage (TWP) is determined by dividing the Weighted Win total of 5.5 by the combined weighted total of 10.5 for a TWP of .5238095. (This is NOT the final power rating.)

By the way, all games against non-PIAA teams will be counted but not weighted because non-PIAA teams will not be assigned a PIAA classification as they were in football.

Move next to the Opponents’ Weighted Winning Percentage (OWP). The wins and losses in the OWP match the wins and losses in the TWP. But the WW and WL figures to the right in the OWP example are determined by the opponents’ weighted won-loss record (this is where it gets tricky, but is necessary to provide a true power rating. For instance, our team’s Game 1 opponent had a 4-6 record, but by using the same process to weight its opponents, that 4-6 record now becomes a 4.2-6.4 weighted record.

Note that there is no weighted won-loss record for the non-PIAA opponent. That’s because a non-PIAA team will most likely play other non-PIAA teams, making a weighted won-loss record impossible. District 3 will not count a non-PIAA opponent’s won-loss record in its OWP (I disagree with this; I’d use the opponent’s non-weighted record).

In the sample, the OWP’s Weighted Wins add up to 55.2, the Weighted Losses to to 33.2, Add 55.2 plus 33.2 for a weighted total of 88.4. The final Opponents Weighted Winning Percentage (OWP) is determined by dividing the weighted win total of 55.2 by the combined weighted total of 88.4 for an OWP of .6244344. (This s NOT the final power rating, either.)

The final power rating is determined by taking 2/3 of the TWP (.5238095 x 0.6666667 for a total of .3492063) and 1/3 of the OWP (.6244344 x .3333333 for a total of .2081447) and adding those together (this is not shown on the sample, unfortunately).

Add .3492063 and .2081447. The total is .557351. This IS the final power rating.

It seems rather complicated, especially when typed out like this. But once its plugged into a spreadsheet, it’s really not as wicked as it seems here. And it is definitely a power rating.

  2 Responses to “New District 3 Team Sports Power Rating (volleyball update inserted)”

  1. Rod, I was wondering if you had an Excel spreadsheet already prepared for this? I coach at Mechanicsburg and actually started putting one together for Boy’s Soccer for the Fall. I would be interested in comparing spreadsheets or finding out what you are using to calculate football’s in the Fall.

  2. Hey Sean,

    Bob Baker of Big Spring, the District 3 treasurer, is the one who constructed the Excel spreadsheets for the power ratings. It’s best to check with him at bbaker@bigspring.k12.pa.us. I’m basically the plug-and-play guy, chasing down missing results, etc. Also, I’ll be handling field hockey. Bob will do football and Dale Stoltzfus of Warwick will do soccer.

    But please check with Bob re the Excel program.

    Rod

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