Public v private: Better numbers
I’ve always acknowledged that words, not numbers, are my friends. So it remains.
I put up this post on Tuesday, linking to a story in the Marion (O.) Star about the Ohio High School Athletic Association’s look at conducting separate state championships for its public and private schools. The idea stemmed from a survey sent out statewide by school superintendents in Wayne County, Ohio.
I ran some numbers in that post that were, well, they were close, but they weren’t 100 percent accurate.
In short, I said that private schools have won 243 PIAA team championships since private schools joined the PIAA in 1972 (more accurately, PIAA was forced to accept private schools that year after the General Assembly changed the school code, barring PIAA from barring private schools). That number was incorrect; the correct number is 256.
I worked off of my PIAA all-time championships database on Tuesday and I did so in a hurry; I had a “date” with my ex-wife on the 8th floor of the Dauphin County Human Services building that turned out to be the most expensive “date” I’ve ever had with any woman. Anyone who has been to the 8th floor knows exactly what I mean.
The bottom line is I went through the database once, rapidly and did not double-check my work. Yep, made a few errors.
I went back through each sport and recalculated the numbers. As noted, private schools have won 256 PIAA team championships since joining PIAA (of all sports, I failed to add in the 13 football titles won by privates). I also said there have been 1,580 PIAA team championships all-time (I still believe that to be correct), but when I calculated the number of total team titles since 1972, I used a completely erroneous total of 951 that came from another calculation, and thus reported that private schools have won nearly 26 percent of the state team championships.
Um, no. Since 1972, the PIAA has crowned 1,399 team champions. Using these correct numbers, private schools have won 18.3 percent of the state titles since 1972. Private school membership has usually been around 15 percent of total PIAA membership, so the private school titles run at just a slightly higher percentage of representation.
I apologize for the error.
If someone wants to check my math – and please do – I have added the following pdf file: Public v Private
Unfortunately, my 100-mph error left readers with the impression that private schools have been over-represented in PIAA team titles by winning about a quarter of them when in fact their numbers are in line with their percentage of membership.
As you can see, the problem is child is basketball, specifically girls’ basketball. Private schools have won 51.9 percent of PIAA girls’ hoop titles, and that’s where the flame burns the hottest on the public-private issue.
But what’s just as important – maybe even more important – is to look at the percentages of the other sports. By and large, the publics completely overwhelm the privates. No private school has won a PIAA boys volleyball or dual meet wrestling title. Private school titles are rare in baseball, softball and field hockey.
While it’s not entirely accurate to say the public v. private dust-up is a basketball-only issue, there really isn’t any other PIAA sport that has percentages as out-of-balance as hoops. That’s the No. 2 reason why I have always argued against the concept of separate championships, although based on their dismal numbers in some sports, the privates just might think it’s a swell idea.
Anyhow, I needed to correct the research. Like I said, numbers and I don’t always get along. Just ask the folks on the 8th floor.
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Is it also important to look at total playoff representation of private schools, rather than only championship titles? I know it would be difficult (if not impossible) to come up with the statistics, but for example: It’s well within the realm of possibility that of 2010′s 16 qualifiers for the state football playoffs, 7 could be private (Pittsburgh Central Catholic, LaSalle College, Bishop McDevitt, Allentown Central Catholic, Greensburg Central Catholic, Lancaster Catholic and Philadelphia West Catholic)!
…or maybe this is just an unusual year–not sure.
Rod thanks for crunching all those numbers.
With that said, your analysis lacks an important element, that being the # of private schools vs. public schools per sport. I realize that this would be a tedious task.
Illustrating that point you mention that no private wrestling school has won a dual meet wrestling title – in the AA SW region I believe that there are 2 private school (out of 72 schools) there, yet in recent years 1 of them placed 2nd & 3rd @ the state dual tournament.
Also I think that you had a typo, per your chart women’s vball has no private titles, while privates have won 14 of 63 men’s titles.
Justin, obviously if this was a serious statistical analysis, I’d have to include a number of different factors. But I’m not an analyst, although some folks would say that I deserve the first four letters of “analyst.”
I focused just on championships for a reason: The whole reason a lot of people get angry and passionate about the issue is because of the championships won (by privates), not championships lost. Granted, when it’s private v private in the finals, it takes the argument to another level. And some people have indeed made that argument to buttress their point that privates have an overwhelming competitive advantage.
O, you’re correct. But I focused on championships for a reason. See my reply to Justin because it fits with your observation.
As to your example, I see exactly what your saying: There are barely any private schools in the field, but even that numerical disadvantage has been overcome by the private school’s ability to draw in athletes. (I’ll say it. Of course you’re talking about Shady Side Academy).
Rod,
What do the numbers look like for the past 10 years? Don’t know if data from 1970s has people concerned. To me it is not surprising that the big issue are basketball on both side and track on the girls side. 2-3 top players in those spots is all you need. If you take out those sports the private winning % is below the 15% membership. To me the private advantage is in sports with small teams as it is easier to get a few good players.
How many total teams are there that compete in football in the PIAA? How many of them are private schools compared to public schools? I’m curious what the percentage of private schools there are.
There is always talk, this time of year especially, about the private schools and how their limitless boundaries give them an advantage. Although they may not always win the state titles, it appears that at least recently they do have a greater amount of success overall in the state playoffs than the public schools.
For the 2009 PIAA playoffs I came up with these numbers:
Quarterfinals
32 teams
9 private schools
28.1% are private schools
Semifinals
16 teams
6 private schools
37.5% are private schools
Finals
8 teams
4 private schools
50% are private schools
It seems in recent years especially that there is a very high percentage of private school teams going deep in the playoffs. I am wondering if these percentages are much greater than the percentage of private schools in the PIAA. With D12, which has a lot of private school teams now competing in the PIAA, these numbers will be most likely be higher now compared to years ago when D12 was not a part of the PIAA.
In the 2008 PIAA football state finals 3 out of the 8 teams were private schools which is 37.5%.
Going back to the 70′s and using every sport collectively isn’t as relevant. I appears that this is an issue that has really only surfaced in recent years. Basketball was where this was primarily noticed, and now it seems to becoming a bigger issue in football.
It seems to me that years ago the thought of transferring wasn’t that popular, but that today there is a different mind set regarding transferring.
Though, it does appear to be changing the landscape of high school sports (in at least some sports).