Week 15 predictions: Tougher than Week 14, that’s for sure

I was all set to brag about my 15-1 record in last week’s PIAA quarterfinal predictions until I started hearing from all of the folks who went 16-0 and, amazingly, picked every score right on the button, even South Fayette’s 62-28 win over Brockway in Class AA.

Such foresight! I’ll try to keep up.

Let’s get right to it:

Last week: 15-1 (93.8% – missed Trinity v Lewisburg, switched at last minute, nicefreakingmove)
Season: 999-278 (78.2% – Trinity miss forces me to pick at least one right this week to reach 1,000 correct selections)

CLASS AAAA
East Championship
La Salle College High School (12-1) vs. North Penn (13-1) at Colonial Stadium, Plymouth-Whitemarsh HS, Saturday, 1 p.m.
Everyone with a heartbeat knows what happened more than four months ago when the two teams opened the season at North Penn’s Crawford Stadium. An evenly and imperfectly played first half, then complete domination by La Salle combined with a North Penn meltdown that led to a 27-14 La Salle victory. In the second half of that game, the North Penn pass defense and quarterback Corey Ernst went as flat as a tortilla. NP head coach Dick Beck was frustrated and made a couple of screwy decisions; La Salle head coach Drew Gordon looked calm and controlled on the other side as La Salle outscored the Knights 21-0 in the last 24 minutes. If that’s where the East Championship story began and ended, La Salle would be picking its favorite Hershey restaurant today (suggestion: Fenicci’s. Terrific Italian food. Not exactly built for a football team, but so what?) But as we all know, Week 1 is as obsolete as a Commodore 64. Right here, right now, I sense that these teams are dead even. North Penn was masterful in the District 1-AAAA playoffs, and hit peak efficiency in the 42-6 championship win over Neshaminy. That was the most stunning result of the weekend, although I get the idea the Knights felt they would whomp Neshaminy all along. In the meantime, La Salle has been fine. Don’t worry about the slow start and somewhat cumbersome 19-7 quarterfinal win over Easton; Easton does that to people. It’s a heavyweight fight, and it might go 13 rounds. Sorry I’ll miss it.

The RodFrisco.com call: La Salle College HS 20, North Penn 14

West Championship
Cumberland Valley (12-2) vs. North Allegheny (13-1) at Mansion Park Stadium, Altoona, Saturday, 1 p.m.
No point in fibbing. Two weeks ago, I was down on the sandy field at Pittsburgh’s Heinz Field watching North Allegheny’s offensive and defensive lines undress Woodland Hills in the first half of the WPIAL-McDonald’s Class AAAA championship game. NA did almost everything right while racking up a 21-0 lead. My colleagues Andrew P. Shay and Eric Epler were watching the same game, weighted down by a Primanti Brothers sandwich, and we all agreed: No way was Cumberland Valley beating THAT team. That was then. Since that wind-chilled moment, cracks have appeared in NA’s armor. A late first-half bomb by Woodland Hills to the 2 was turned aside only because the Wolverines fumbled away the ball, critical given Woodland Hills’ impressive second half rally. A few plays into the second half, NA’s top rusher Alex Papson dislocated his collarbone; he’s gone. Other NA players are either out or playing dinged. The Tigers played with only a half-life against generally overmatched State College and won 21-6. NA never trailed, but never could get rid of the gnat-like Little Lions, who managed to punch out 202 yards. At the same time, Cumberland Valley has looked fresh, healthy and focused. Granted, Red Lion is to North Allegheny like Chickie’s Rock is to Everest, but CV had only minor difficulties last Saturday (at one point, Red Lion QB Tanner Klinefelter completed 8 straight passes). You cannot underestimate teeming confidence at this time of year. SO I’m scratching my spot analysis made in Pittsburgh two weeks ago and giving CV a genuine chance, although not a puncher’s chance. If anyone does the football punching, it’ll be NA. But CV is in this one, even if it’s being played at the Mid-Penn Conference Funeral Home and Crematory.

The RodFrisco.com call: North Allegheny 14, Cumberland Valley 10

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CLASS AAA
East Championship
Allentown Central Catholic (14-0) vs. Archbishop Wood (13-0) at Frank Banko Field, Liberty HS, Bethlehem, Friday, 7 p.m.
The only matchup of unbeatens in the semifinal round, it should play out like two of the state’s best have collided. ACC is Muhammed Ali in this one, gaudy, snappy, full of athletic talent, yet full of knockout ability. It’s the team the cameras all gather ’round, hoping for that Life Magazine cover shot. And why not? ACC is averaging 41.9 points per game, ninth-best in the state according to e-pasports.com. ACC has scored 109 points in two playoff games against other unbeatens. Makes you go “oooooo.” Wood, on the other hand, is Smokin’ Joe Frazier; it makes you go “ouch.” Wood’s defensive scoring average – 12.6 ppg – doesn’t result in hosannas per se, but it’s very indicative of the way Wood plays: hard-charging, run-oriented offense (although QB Joey Monaghan has throw for 1,344 yards) complemented by stand-your-ground, hard-hitting defense. Wood has yielded some points, but not recently. Since giving up 34 in a nutty 48-34 regular-season win over Cardinal O’Hara – the first of two wins over a very good COH team – Wood has yielded a little less than 9 points per game, usually good enough in playoff ball. ACC has played quality defense, too, so the really big question is this: Can ACC’s ball-bearing offense (once it starts rolling, it doesn’t stop, especially against speed-weak teams like Clearfield and Abington Heights) do its usual thing against a muscular and swift side like Wood? The answer is below.

The RodFrisco.com call: Allentown Central Catholic 27, Archbishop Wood 17

West Championship
Harrisburg Bishop McDevitt (12-2) vs. Cathedral Prep (9-4) at E.J. Mansell Stadium, DuBois, Friday, 7 p.m.
What is with the people in Harrisburg? They get a game in DuBois and they act like they’re being shipped to Moose Jaw. OK, it’s not around the corner, but let me ease your mind just a bit: There is food, running water and, I’m told, polite people in DuBois. On the other hand, dress warmly. And gas is like a buck-19 in DuBois, which is pronounced DOO-boys instead of doo-BWAH, and inevitably leads to a Michael Jackson joke. Trust me when I tell you fine McDevitt types that finding DOO-boys is the least of your worries; Cathedral Prep is. The Ramblers have the least impressive record among the final 16 (I plain REFUSE to call it the Sweet 16) because they’ve played one of the most impressive schedules. Prep was walloped by McDowell in the season opener and was thrashed by three strong outta state Catholic programs, schools McDevitt would have had difficulty beating, including New York Class A (equivalent to AAA) state champion Aquinas Institute of Rochester. The Ramblers, though 3-4 at one point, were hardly concerned about their post-season health because District 10 uses sections to qualify for playoffs, and cruised through the 10-AAA bracket. In addition, Prep has Mike Mischler, who coached ECP to the state title in the truly terrific 2000 PIAA Class AAAA championship game, at the wheel again. McDevitt has stumbled at this level before, especially the painful 2005 AAAA loss to eventual state champion McKeesport, but there’s a sense that McDevitt has leadership and a steady hand on the wheel in Matt Johnson. And if the McD O-line can protect Johnson, who is coming off possibly the greatest quarterbacking performance in District 3 playoff history, the Crusaders have every chance to advance to their first state title game since 1995. That will be a challenge; the Ramblers forced a PIAA Class AAA record 7 turnovers against Central Valley last week (Prep had 4). Prep is loaded with underclassmen, McDevitt with seniors at the key sports. Well, DE Noah Spence isn’t a senior, but he plays one in games. That just might be McDevitt’s ticket.

The RodFrisco.com call: Bishop McDeviitt 27, Cathedral Prep 21

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CLASS AA
East Championship
West Catholic (11-2) vs. Lewisburg (14-0) at Hersheypark Stadium, Saturday, Dec. 11
You know, I’m feeling considerable sympathy for Lewisburg. The Green Dragons are 14-0, won some very tough games the last three weeks and somehow they’re fourth on the Class AA respect ladder. I guess I’ve played my part in that, ranking them consistently lower than West, South Fayette and Forest Hills all season. But that doesn’t mean I’m sitting here in Enola waiting for them to fail. Indeed, after getting an eyeball full of the Dragons last week, I’m suitably impressed because they meet the No. 1 criterium of a successful football team: they play like a team. That’s how Lewisburg squeezed past Bloomsburg and Danville in true football battles, then manhandled a pouting Trinity side last week. So you know what happens when you get all praised up out of the chute, right? Yep, here comes the slap: I haven’t built enough faith to believe Lewisburg can beat West Catholic. Haven’t seen the Burrs, although I’m a frequent visitor to their website. But after West’s dissection of Northern Lehigh, I’m a bigger believer than I’ve been in past weeks. The Burrs have been sound defensively all year, and of course their video-game numbers tend to leave that unit is the publicity dust. The Burrs had to hit the road last week, a pretty big mental test after cruising through average schedule and D-12 playoff opponents. They passed, rushing for a PIAA Class AA quarterfinal single-game rushing record (486 yards), breaking the record of 443 by you-know-who (West). Lewisburg is a very nice sum of its parts, but so is West Catholic.

The RodFrisco.com call: West Catholic 34, Lewisburg 14

West Championship
South Fayette (14-0) vs. Forest Hills (13-1) at Spartan Stadium, Hempfield Area HS, Greensburg, Saturday, 1 p.m.
By now you’ve seen the pinball numbers South Fayette put up against Brockway last week: all-time PIAA record 380 yards passing, 62 points, no punts, 593 offensive yards in just 40 offensive plays. Oh, and on a snow-covered field. The Green Machine indeed. Of course, it helped the Lions that their first state playoff game in history paired them against a Brockway team that played defense only as a way to give QB Derek Buganza a rest and because the rules didn’t allow them to be on offense all of the time. Have no doubt that a very good Forest Hills defense will put up considerably more resistance than the overmatched Rovers did. But there is a red flag for the Rangers’ D here. South Fayette has a spectacular passing game led by QB Christian Brumbaugh, and the only time Forest Hills’ defense was blown up this year was with a passing game; Johnstown QB Gervon Simon carved up Forest Hills for 402 yards and five TD passes in a 34-25 decision, the Rangers’ only loss. Brumbaugh had five TD passes last week, coincidentally. But there’s a red flag for South Fayette, too. As good (and big) as South Fayette is, it’s still a first-time player on the state stage while this group of Forest Hills players has some solid playoff experience. That matters in December.

The RodFrisco.com call: South Fayette 35, Forest Hills 20

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CLASS A
East Championship
Bishop Carroll (11-2) vs. Taylor Riverside (13-1) at Don Malinak Stadium, Central Mountain HS, Mill Hall, Friday, 7 p.m.
I’m going to say right up front that I’m staying with the chalk here. Bishop Carroll is good: the Huskies have a terrific RB in Ryan Woo and a great DL in Josh Chumrik. A nice cast surrounds those two, and Carroll has thrived in the postseason as a result. But they are running into a live grenade in Riverside. The Vikings shut out Southern Columbia 36-0. The Vikings shut out Schuylkill Haven 41-0. That’s a 77-0 run against the two best teams in the East not named Riverside, teams that IMHO would have defeated Carroll. That’s pure speculation, of course, as is this prediction, but there’s no way I’m pegging an upset here. I’m strapped tight to the front bumper of the Riverside bandwagon.

The RodFrisco.com call: Riverside 44, Bishop Carroll 6

West Championship
Clairton (14-0) vs. Farrell (13-1) at Carl Newman Stadium, North Allegheny HS, Wexford, Friday, 7 p.m.
There aren’t a whole lot of state championship rivalries. They come and go with time, and have generally been one-sided series that were far more a function of PIAA brackets for a certain time frame than powerful teams working their way through the tournament. The notable exceptions were the three straight meetings between Strath Haven and West Allegheny in the AAA finals and the three consecutive games between Southern Columbia and Rochester in the A finals. But this Clairton-Farrell thing is growing on me; this is the third straight year they’ve met for the Class A West Championship. Yeah, Clairton won the last two and, because of that cyclonic defense, is favored to win a third straight. But despite those losses, Farrell has always come into the game with a sporting chance to win the game. The same is true in 2010; the Steelers have a chance in this one. But only a chance. Statistically speaking, Clairton is the No. 1 team in the state in every scoring category, offensively and defensively, except one: Offensive scoring average. In that category, Clairton is No. 2 at 47.3 points per game to Brockway’s 47.9. It is likely to stay at No. 2; I just don’t think Clairton, good as it is, can ring up the 56 points it needs to leapfrog Brockway. But it will score enough to reach the PIAA finals for the third straight year.

The RodFrisco.com call: Clairton 22, Farrell 14